April 27th letter to County Commissioners

April 27, 2017

Chairman Dorosin and Orange County Commissioners:

In the last few months, thousands of Orange County citizens have engaged in discussion of the Orange County Transit Plan. A majority have spoken out against the updated Durham-Orange Light Rail plan. The greatest concern is that the plan does not improve transportation services for most county residents, yet it introduces extraordinary financial risks.

The $3.3 billion dollar Light Rail between Durham and UNC will serve less than 2% of the local population. The plan fails to provide promised additional bus services to our downtowns, planned growth centers, and our transit dependent communities. Light Rail service is planned to begin service in 2029 with loan repayments stretching through 2062, and will consume all available transit funds and eliminate our ability to expand public transit services for decades.

As you know, the plan adds nearly $1 billion of debt, under the control of GoTriangle, an unaudited organization, with no credit rating or proven experience with complex infrastructure projects. In fact, GoTriangle’s mishandling of schedules, funding, estimates, and communications is responsible for the latest abbreviated decision process that is so rushed that there hasn’t been sufficient time for critical public review or reasonable vetting of the project.

As a result, elected officials are poised to approve the $3.3 billion project without critical examination of many critical assumptions:

  • Projected light rail ridership. Since the original 2012 plan was issued, GoTriangle’s ridership projections doubled without adequate explanation. There is no mention of seasonal fluctuations caused by the large student and university population served.
  • Projected sales taxes. The assumed transit tax growth is overly optimistic given the persistent and historical slow growth in Orange County, and assumes no cyclical downturns or recessions over the next 45 years. Concerns raised by Orange County’s financial advisors, prominent economists and others have been ignored.
  • Interest rate risk. There has been no discussion of interest rate risk associated with nearly $1 billion of debt. Future interest rates will vary widely depending on market conditions, the future credit rating of GoTriangle, and the quality of the assets (including sales tax revenues) that will secure the loans.

Planned bus hours have been cut and the Chapel Hill North-South Bus Rapid Transit project is funded at such a low level that it cannot be built. There is not enough evening or weekend bus service to make public transportation a reality for those who most need it. Real connectivity within Orange County and to the greater Triangle is not achieved by this plan or by the money spent. If the county or its towns decide later to make urgently needed public transit improvements, additional taxes will be required, since the majority of the ½ cent transit tax funds are consumed by the Light Rail project for the next 45 years.

The financial evaluation of project benefits, costs and revenues conducted by our elected officials is incomplete and unacceptable. If approved, Orange County’s citizens will be committed to a financial plan that falls apart if just one of many assumptions goes wrong. Failure to meet our commitments could result in larger loans, and/or adverse impacts to the county’s credit rating. Providing the transit that’s actually needed could require increased property taxes and reductions in other county services.

Orange County officials expressed a desire to shield the county from undue risk. Yet commissioners are about to enter into an inter-local agreement that places us at a disadvantage if anything goes wrong. Orange County’s role is clearly subordinate to GoTriangle and Durham County. Consider that two stations planned for Chapel Hill have already been identified as potential cost cutting measures.

According to the proposed inter-local agreement with Durham and GoTriangle, changes are approved by “mutual agreement”. That means: (1) if federal or state funding or proposed private donations do not materialize; or (2) if Orange County’s sales taxes don’t grow as projected; or (3) if Durham and GoTriangle want changes that Orange County doesn’t like, the county is likely to end up in a losing arbitration. The inter-local agreement excludes access to appeals and to the courts. Orange County would have a weak case in disputes because the commissioners rushed to approve the sales tax, ridership, financing and service assumptions that form the basis of the contract.

This large and risky plan comes at a time when Orange County faces enormous pressure on its schools and essential services. Federal and state governments are reducing funding for health care, nutrition for children and seniors, affordable housing and public education. That’s in addition to the General Assembly’s continued challenge to local impact fees and taxing authority. The Commissioners have not explained how the voter approved bonds from last November will affect tax rates, or how future needs for schools, facilities and essential services will be funded.

April 27th is Orange County’s last chance to say “no” to this ill-conceived plan. Any other vote leaves citizens throughout the county with grave concerns about our transit future and the fiscal risks associated with the plan.

Anticipating that we may have the opportunity, we are ready to work with county officials to develop a new transportation plan that truly serves the needs of all county residents.

Sincerely,

 

David Adams, Chapel Hill

Christine and Terry Bazzarre

Jamezetta Bedford, Chapel Hill

Tony and Deb Blake, Bingham

Margie Brache, Chapel Hill

Bruce and Dolly Buley, Hillsborough

Aaron and Sarah Butner, Hillsborough

Alex Cabanes, Chapel Hill

Ashley Campbell, Hillsborough

Rev. Robert Campbell, Rogers Road

William and Ann Charles, Chapel Hill

Lucy Castle, Efland

Alex and Maria Castro, Bingham

Bentley Cecil, Efland

Katherine Wilkerson Cheek, Hurdle Mills

Patricia Clayton, Hillsborough

Sheila Creth, Chapel Hill

Sue Culbreth Denton, Hillsborough

Irene Doherty, Chapel Hill

Nicolas Dominkovics, Chapel Hill

Phil Duckwall, Bingham

Bill Efland, Efland

Jaye Ruth Efland, Efland

Mike Efland, Efland

Arthur and Debbie Finn, Chapel Hill

Vivian Foushee, Chapel Hill

Mary George, Chapel Hill

Sam and Christy Gharbo, Efland

Bishop Victor Glover, Hillsborough

Laurel Goldman, Chapel Hill

Kevin and Jaci Greenhill, Mebane

Kim Greer, Little River

Joan Guilkey, Chapel Hill

Linda Haac, Carrboro

Suzanne Haff, Chapel Hill

Rachel Phelps Hawkins, Cedar Grove

Bonnie Hauser, Bingham

Bruce Henschel, Chapel Hill

Mariella Hernandez, Carrboro

Nancy Holt, Bingham

Charles Humble, Chapel Hill

Nina Hypes, Bingham

Leslie Jaffe, Chapel Hill

Larry and Joyce Johnson, Rougemont

Rudy T. Juiliano, Chapel Hill

Lisa Kaylie, Chapel Hill

Lucretia Kinney, Carrboro

Jane Kirsch, Chapel Hill

Karin Kolenberg, Chapel Hill

Chris Krueger, Chapel Hill

Fred Lampe, Chapel Hill

Ken Larsen, Chapel Hill

Ann J. Loftin, Chapel Hill

Julie McClintock, Chapel Hill

Brenda McCall and Dick Harmsen, Bingham

Vickie McGee, Bingham

Elaine Marinucci, Cedar Grove

Marie and Robert McAdoo, EflandElvira Mebane, Efland

Douglas and Yvonne Mendenhall, Chapel Hill

Eugene and Anne Montgomery, New Hope

John N. Morris, Chapel Hill

Fred S. Naiden

Nancy Oates, Chapel Hill

Bob Patrick and Polly Dornette, Mebane

Phil N. Post, Chapel Hill

Jeff Prather, Chapel Hill

John Quinterno, Chapel Hill

David and Terri Ray, Efland

Jorge and Michelle Rios, Hillsborough

Diane Robertson, Carrboro

Shella Record, Little River

Gianni & Lynn Scattolini, Chapel Hill

David Schwartz, Chapel Hill

Ed Sharpe, Efland

Wade Snipes, Efland

Del Snow, Chapel Hill

Mary Sonis, Carrboro

Deb Suchoff, Chapel Hill

Tana Hartman Thorn, Bingham

Karyn W. Traut, Chapel Hill

Terry and Robert Vance, Chapel Hill

Susan Walser, Bingham

Joey Ware-Furlow, Chapel Hill

Tamara and Whitney Watson, Bingham

Jeff and Judy Weinstock

Norma and Dick White, Little River

Diane and Robert Willis, Chapel Hill

Phyllis Wright and Harlan Fields, Hurdle Mills

Mark Zimmerman, Chapel Hill

 

 

 

 

CC: Orange County Citizens and Media

Top